Tenth Anniversary of the Brexit Referendum in the United Kingdom

Tuesday 23 June the Brexit Referendum signalled the start of a great disruption in the UK political and economic life.  The unexpected but narrow vote (52-48%) in favour of Brexit began the process with the UK Prime Minister resigning.  On 22 June Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation – the sixth Prime Minister since Brexit with a seventh waiting in the wings.  Boris Johnson had a large majority after the 2019 General Election and Starmer an even larger majority in 2024 but the majorities have not saved them.

The short term  economic consequences included a steep depreciation of the sterling, a plunge in global stock price and slide in UK GDP.  In the ren years since Brexit, GDP has fallen by around 4% according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) but other commentators have argued that the GDP has declined even further   The well respected National Bureau of Economic Research in America. puts the cost higher. It argues that at the start of 2025, the UK economy was 8% smaller than if it had remained in the EU.

The Trade and Co-operation Agreement outlined the trading arrangements between the EU and UK and was agreed in December 2020.   The problems created by the TCA were quickly evident in a number of sectors such food and drink and fisheries.  Research  co-operation also became difficult as the UK left co-operation programmes such as Horizon and Erasmus plus a wide array of EU funding programmes.

Relations with the EU began to improve with the arrival of Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister in 2022 and after a protracted negotiation the UK re-joined the Horizon Europe programme.  In the energy co-operation area, the UK Government announced partnership agreements with  individual countries and joined the North Sea Energy Co-operation grouping and announced a number of Agreements with EU Member States such the Hydrogen Partnership with the Federal Republic of Germany.

A change of Government in July 2024 saw Sir Keir Starmer form a new Government with a more positive attitude to the EU and a wish that the UK was at the heart of Europe.  Thus seemed purely rhetorical given the red lines in a The Labour Part Manifesto which advocated a closer relations with the EU but contained ‘red lines.’  These red lines included no UK  membership of the EU Single Market  or the EU Customs Union.

However, the more positive position of the Labour Government and the economic failure of Brexit has led to a wider debate about the UK’s relationship with the EU and a growing lead in the Opinion Polls showing a narrow majority in favour of re-joining the EU.  One notable element missing from the debate in the UK has been the approach from EU partners.  There seems an element of UK exceptionalism of we will get what we ask for.

The EU-UK Reset  negotiations following the first Reset Summit (May 2025) has given an indication of attitudes.  There seemed to be little problem in agreeing the three documents from the Summit –  a Joint Statement establishing a regular dialogue; a Defence and Security Partnership; and  a Common Understanding.  This latter document outlined the policy areas where co-operation could be intensified.  It included trade in agricultural products, energy co-operation and inclusion in EU mobility projects.

Progress has been slow and has shown the different stances on UK and EU Governments.  There were protracted discussions about the cost to the UK for joining the Erasmus + Programme and the Youth Mobility Scheme.  Erasmus+  discussions involved the size of the UK contribution.  UK contribution.  Agreement has now been achieved.  Wider discussions were needed for the Youth Mobility Scheme where the United Kingdom had freedom of movement concerns and wanted to restrict the numbers entering the UK Agreement is now imminent  but this did lead to the postponement of the second reset meeting.

Food and agricultural discussions have been contained in the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement.  Discussions have centred around the alignment of UK legislation to the EU in areas such as food safety, plant health, and pesticide rules. Although it is less than six years since the UK left the EU, there have been changes  to UK legislation there have been changes to the legislation in a number of areas such as pesticides.  Progress has been made in terms of energy networks but this has also been rather slow.

European Policy Solutions is monitoring the progress of the the reset discussions and will publish new posts in due course.